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Friday’s battle of the forwards pits the reawakened Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman against Mabululu and Gelson Dala, whose goalscoring exploits have brought Angola this far.
Angola’s Africa Cup of Nations journey was possibly not anticipated by even the most optimistic supporter. Those expectations were an upshot of the Palancas Negras’ history in the continental showpiece: the southern African nation had never won a knockout game at the Cup of Nations until the resounding 3-0 win over Namibia last Saturday.
That was not even achieved as hosts in 2010 when Asamoah Gyan halted those prospects in the last eight, and Angola’s decline at subsequent tournaments was striking. The Palancas Negras had not played a fourth game at AFCONs 2012, 2013 and 2019, notably finding the back of the net six times in the three finals. That tally was matched after three AFCON 2023 fixtures, aided by the decisive execution of Mabululu and Dala Gelson.
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19:31 - 27.01.2024
Angola 3-0 Namibia: Gelson-inspired Palancas Negras wait on Nigeria after Namibia rout
Angola became the first country to reach the last eight at the AFCON 2023 after a Gelson Dala masterclass against Namibia.
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21:00 - 28.01.2024
AFCON 2023 Mabululu goal celebration compared to Bafetimbi Gomis explained
Mabululu's goal celebration, reminiscent of Gomis and Saint-Étienne's legacy, is decoded in the context of African football's rich traditions.
How Mabululu and Dala have carried the can for Angola
Delineating Mabululu and Dala’s Angola influence is complicated as both have thrived despite the limited influence of the other. Seven goals have been netted between them, but Dala setting up the 31-year-old against Namibia was the only time either player has had a direct involvement.
Regardless, the four-goal man’s contribution stands at five, accounting for 55.6% of the Palancas Negras’ nine strikes at AFCON 2023. Considering goals alone, Dala’s four and Mabululu’s three make it seven of nine netted by Pedro Goncalves’ troops. Despite being beneficiaries of Fredy’s three assists, Angola’s top creator has profited from his teammates’ finishing, with the high-scoring pair contributing 77.8% of the side’s goals in Cote d’Ivoire.
Interestingly, Mabululu’s outstanding strike against Namibia and Dala’s brace in the same fixture took them level with Flavio and Manucho, the only players to score three goals at the Cup of Nations for Angola. Mabululu matched Flavio’s three-goal tally from 2006 and 2010, and Dala equalled Manucho’s four in 2008. The ex-Manchester United player also netted three times in 2012, and the very next goal for either or both could be record-surpassing.
No player on the Angolan side has netted more than once outside those two, underscoring their undoubted threat against a Nigeria side keen to claim a fourth African title. However, the task of surprising the Super Eagles on Friday got more demanding after the decisive performances from Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman in success over Cameroon last Saturday.
A roused Osimhen and in-form Lookman are unwelcome news for Angola
After waiting for Osimhen to dominate a game at AFCON 2023, Super Eagles supporters saw a version closer to the Napoli centre-forward's finest against Cameroon, a menacing proposition for the Palancas Negras. Nigeria’s top man had missed a glut of promising goalscoring chances in the group phase, with the eye test validated by the underlying numbers.
Despite not adding to his solitary Cup of Nations strike in the round of 16 win over the Indomitable Lions, Osimhen was at his battling best, giving his opponents little or no breathing space and chasing seemingly lost causes. It was from one of such situations that he set up Lookman’s first of the night in Abidjan, dispossessing Oumar Gonzalez and unselfishly setting up the Atalanta forward to put the Super Eagles 1-0 ahead.
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According to Opta, it was the first time Jose Peseiro’s men have scored following a high turnover, and the Napoli marksman was unsurprisingly involved. Profiting from Osimhen in his element was Lookman, whose role change from winger to forward highlights how the Super Eagles can benefit from the multidimensional attacker. The Atalanta man’s ball-carrying underscores his traits as a wide attacker, while his penchant for positioning himself optimally inside the final third means he is on the receiving end of scoring chances.
Lookman’s finishing for both goals against Cameroon was questionable, with Fabrice Ondoa possibly disappointed not to thwart the 26-year-old. However, the forward’s speed of thought and action put him in optimal positions for the brace.
While the Atalanta man has arguably outdone Osimhen at the continental showpiece, Nigeria’s most influential forward netted the equaliser in the Super Eagles’ tournament opener against Equatorial Guinea — set up by Lookman — won the penalty to defeat tournament hosts Ivory Coast and played his best game of AFCON 2023 in the win over age-old rivals Cameroon, returning the favour to the La Dea attacker.
However, Angola are a sterner challenge to Peseiro’s men than the Indomitable Lions, despite their minimal continental exploits and on the back of a maiden knockout win. In Mabululu and Dala, the Palancas Negras have forwards whose combined tally (seven) has dwarfed Nigeria’s five goals.
The forwards’ importance goes beyond the basic numbers. Among the players still left in the competition, Dala’s eight chances created from open play rank highest, outdoing Lookman (six) and Osimhen (five). The Al-Wakrah SC forward’s four non-penalty goals, scored from six shots on target, have come from expected goals (xG) of 1.31, pointing to excellent conversion.
Only Seko Fofana (nine) outdoes the 27-year-old Dala’s eight actions after driving forward with the ball, even if Lookman has fashioned one more chance than the Angolan’s three following a ball carry. It is noteworthy that Dala and Mabululu are inclined to shoot after progressive carries (four each), with both finding the net once already after such actions.
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Interestingly, while there have been no goal-ending carries, there have been two assists after driving positively in possession, with Lookman assisting Osimhen’s leveller in Nigeria’s opening game and the Napoli man doing likewise last Saturday in the victory over Cameroon.
Peseiro’s men are now tournament favourites after Senegal and Morocco exited at the round of 16, a tag that the three-time African champions hope is not a poisoned chalice at this drama-laden Cup of Nations.
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02:33 - 31.01.2024
Nigeria now overwhelming favourites to win AFCON 2023 according to Supercomputer
Nigeria's quest for a potential fourth AFCON title has been assessed by Opta's Supercomputer
Keeping Mabululu and Dala quiet means the Super Eagles are halfway there — perhaps 77.8% there — in their ambition to make the semis.
It is easier said than done.
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