Arsenal more likely to win Champions League than Real Madrid according to Supercomputer

The UEFA Champions League trophy | Imago

Arsenal more likely to win Champions League than Real Madrid according to Supercomputer

Ayoola Kelechi 12:08 - 22.02.2025

The Gunners have been placed among the favourites to win the UEFA Champions League this season

Following the recent UEFA Champions League last-16 draw, Arsenal have been given a higher probability of winning the competition than Real Madrid, according to Opta’s supercomputer.

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However, their chances of lifting the trophy have dropped following the draw, with Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen emerging as the biggest winners in terms of improved title odds.

Liverpool remain favourites despite tough draw

Liverpool, who finished top of the league phase, remain the most likely team to win the tournament (17.2%), despite drawing a difficult round-of-16 clash with PSG.

Jurgen Klopp and Jordan Henderson with the Champions League trophy | Imago

Their path to the final could also include Aston Villa in the quarter-finals and potentially Arsenal, Real Madrid, or Atlético Madrid in the semis, making their road to glory one of the toughest.

Arsenal, who were second favourites before the draw (16.8%), have seen their title odds drop to 13.6%, now placing them third behind Barcelona (15.4%).

Arsenal players celebrate | Credit: Imago

The Gunners must first overcome PSV Eindhoven, a team they convincingly beat at home last season, before possibly facing one of the Madrid giants in the quarter-finals and Liverpool in the semis.

Real Madrid behind Arsenal in rankings

Real Madrid’s chances slightly improved (+1.1%) after drawing city rivals Atlético Madrid, but they remain behind Arsenal in the rankings as they are only the fifth most likely to win the title.

Vinicius celebrating with the Champions League trophy || Getty

The biggest winners of the draw were Barcelona, who landed in the easier half of the bracket, facing Benfica in the last 16 and then potentially Borussia Dortmund or Lille in the quarters.

Their title odds jumped from 12.7% to 15.4%, making them the second favourites behind only Premier League giants Liverpool.

Jose Mourinho lifting the 2010 UEFA Champions League trophy | Imago

Meanwhile, Bayer Leverkusen also saw a 1.2% boost to their chances, while Inter Milan (12.7%) and PSG (8.8%) remain outsiders. With the path to the Munich final now mapped out, the battle for European supremacy is set to intensify.