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The forward cost a king’s ransom and signing him permanently will cost even more. Why are the West London side seemingly so invested in the Atletico Madrid loanee?
Barely two minutes into Wednesday night’s Champions League at the Santiago Bernabeu, Chelsea perhaps recognised what was about to play out against Real Madrid.
A swift attacking transition had seen N’Golo Kante release Joao Felix from the halfway line, but what ensued made the club’s supporters pull their hair out. Felix, unable to create separation from Eder Militao, shot straight at Thibaut Courtois.
It was a different goalkeeper but an all too familiar outcome: the Portuguese making the opposing goalkeeper work but barely threatening to score.
When Chelsea decided to temporarily bring the 23-year-old to Stamford Bridge, he was meant to be the difference maker on nights like Wednesday. However, those moments have been few and far between for the Atletico Madrid loanee.
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21:48 - 09.01.2023
OPINION Joao Felix is the latest of Todd Boehly’s many expensive mistakes
Chelsea have agreed to pay €11 million for a five-month loan while also covering Joao Felix’s full €280k-a-week salary without an option to buy.
He was replaced just after the hour mark, with the Blues a goal down and playing with a man less, and with his scoreless run against Real Madrid now extended to seven games.
Only two goals have been scored, with no assists since Felix’s January arrival. Perhaps interestingly, the 23-year-old has fashioned only one big chance in the Premier League and Champions League, demonstrating an absence of creativity.
While the player’s profile as a second striker and not a playmaker meant a bucketload of chances created was not expected, the ongoing paucity was not foreseen.
Indeed, Joao Felix’s statistical profile in his last 18 months in La Liga compared to three months in the Premier League is instructive.
Below are some of Felix’s attacking statistics in 2021-22 and the first half of 2022-23…
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…and below is the 23-year-old in the Premier League.
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Immediately jumping off the page is the increase in shots per 90 in England compared to La Liga and a significant drop off in Expected Assisted Goals (xAG) — xG that follows a pass that assists a shot.
Indeed, Felix’s decision-making has been a continued area of frustration for the club’s fans, especially as he takes up interesting positions between the lines or in the half-spaces.
A few instances from a glut of situations are noteworthy.
In a 2-0 defeat by Tottenham Hotspur in February, the Portuguese twice opted to shoot from long-range on occasions when he had Raheem Sterling available for a pass, the latter annoying the Englishman (circled).
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Against Everton, Graham Potter’s penultimate Premier League game as Chelsea head coach, Felix ignores Reece James’s overlapping run to shoot at goal, with the effort not only weak but straight into Jordan Pickford.
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Since making that Fulham debut on January 12, the Atletico loanee has shot at goal 36 times in 10 Premier League games, averaging 3.6 shots per match.
It is telling that Felix has accumulated Expected Goals of 0.5 or higher in just three of those matches — 0.8 at Fulham, 0.6 against West Ham United and 0.5 at Leicester City — in part highlighting the Blues’ broader creativity issues but mostly demonstrating the Portugal international’s tendency to take low-percentage shots.
The Chelsea forward’s confidence in backing himself from long range is admirable, even if flawed ball-striking technique and direction of those shots mean the 23-year-old’s efforts either end up blocked or straight at the goalkeeper, a recurring theme during Felix’s loan spell.
In the 28th minute on Wednesday night, we witnessed good Felix and bad Felix in seconds. The Atletico loanee recognised where the space was...
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...briefly created separation from Militao to receive Enzo Fernandez’s pass by taking the ball on the back foot to lose the Brazil centre-back…
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…but the forward’s weak attempt is blocked by Dani Carvajal and was unlikely to trouble Courtois anyway.
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The subsequent disinclination to chase back as Carlo Ancelotti’s men threatened to transition swiftly was noticed, which is unsurprisingly another stick to beat the young forward with — being a liability without the ball.
Despite a predisposition to take up clever positions between the lines or in the half-spaces, turn goal-side and carry the ball aggressively, Felix’s minimal end product and questionable decision-making have seen observers deride the €11m (£9.69m) loan fee Chelsea paid to have him temporarily in the second half of a mediocre season.
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23:44 - 10.04.2023
Chelsea plan Joao Felix extension amidst performance and FFP concerns
Chelsea consider Joao Felix an integral part of their current project and are considering means to make his loan deal permanent in the summer
Rumours abound about the English’s side interest in swooping for the player’s permanent transfer in the summer, but there is a feeling that is not an investment they should make, even if there is some sympathy for the player owing to the continued instability at the club.
Not only is there no permanent head coach in place to be involved in that transfer decision, but a glut of forwards at Cobham, the expected arrival of Christopher Nkunku and the likely absence from Europe next season suggest another big-money move for someone who is no difference-maker would be ill-advised.
Chelsea hoped to replicate 2012 and 2021 Champions League heroics this year, but a 2-0 loss in Madrid means they may have played their last away game on the continent for a while.
It may also have been Felix’s final road game in Europe for the beleaguered club.
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15:18 - 18.02.2023
PREMIER LEAGUE Chelsea ready to sign Joao Felix on permanent basis
Chelsea are reportedly keen to turn the loan signing of Joao Felix into a permanent deal after his impressive performances.
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