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Football is something of a phenomenon in the world of sports. Never has a game been so incredibly important to the global cultural development.
Three billion fans, across the world, claim to watch football and enjoy it, to various degrees. It is, therefore, unsurprising, that football betting is one of the most popular pastimes among fans of sports, and offers some of the biggest odds to win today at various sportsbooks online.
Speaking of betting, one of the most important things for a punter is to understand odds and what they mean. However, while some may stop at understanding the odds, others are not satisfied. They want to get down to it, and find out how the sportsbooks calculate odds in the first place. In this article, we will attempt to demystify the process, and bring up the science behind calculating betting odds.
What are Odds?
Odds, as you may know, are numerical representations of probability in a football match. They can represent which club is likelier to win the game, how many goals each club is likely to score, how many fouls or corners each club will make, etc. Pretty much any possibility you can think to bet on, odds can cover.
Football is the most popular sport in the world, and therefore, the most popular sport to bet on. Bookies put a lot of effort in calculating odds on football matches. However, the question we have is how? How do bookies calculate these odds and come up with the final number? Let’s find out.
The Basis of Odds
A lot of science goes into calculating the odds. Statisticians and sports analysts work tirelessly together to come up with the best, most accurate, and fairest numbers to represent sports betting odds. But, just what factors do they base these numbers on?
Well, odds are primarily based on a probability that a certain event occurs. For example, the probability that Manchester City wins the English Premier League for the fourth time in a row is quite high. But, what are the factors that decide the probability?
The truth is, analysts, mathematicians, and statisticians take everything you can possibly think of into account to come up with these odds; who the home team is, are key players injured, historical data regarding the team’s performances, weather conditions, all of this and much more goes into creating the odds.
For example, Barcelona may be one of Spain’s most accomplished clubs. However, the recent injury of their midfielder definitely impacted their performance. However, their midfielder is back, and just in time for the El Clasico. Once more, tensions are high, and excitement is building for the fans of the Spanish club.
The Science
We are now aware of the basis for the odds. But, that still leaves us with one question; “Where does all the data come from?” Well, that should be obvious. The data is based around the recent performance of the clubs being discussed. For example, if we were to discuss the English Premier League, statisticians would go back five-or-so years, and base the odds on that.
They would look at the result distribution, and see how it has changed over the years, or whether it has changed at all. They would then look at the statistics regarding a game’s end, i.e. the percentage of games that ended in a win vs. those that ended in a draw.
The first thing statisticians might do is remove any extra variables, and just look at victory vs. draw between “Home” and “Away” teams. Once they do this, they can then add other significant factors, such as weather conditions, key players missing, etc.
Once all that is done, the mathematicians go over their conclusions, and base their predictions on these numbers. In other words, they create “Expected results,” based on "observed results.” From these percentages, the sportsbook then set up the odds. This brings us to our final point; how do sports bettors read odds?
How do the Odds Work?
Now that you know the science behind odds, it is time to discuss how they work in practice. Most sports bettors are probably aware of this. However, as online sports betting has had a surge in popularity, many new fans have joined the industry. This is why it is important to go over the odds and help point these newbies in the right direction.
There are three main ways that bookies tend to represent odds. These are: fractional (UK odds), decimal (European odds), and money line (U.S. odds). In this final section of the article, we are going to discuss the three different types of odds, and how they work.
Fractional Odds
Fractional odds are primarily used by UK-based sportsbooks. They are represented as fractions, where the top fraction represents the amount of money you get for each bet that equals the bottom fraction. For example, if the odds listed a 5/1, it means that a winning bet equals 5 Euros for every 1 Euro wagered.
·Decimal Odds
Decimal odds are pretty simple to figure out. They are also called European odds, and are commonly used by European bookies. Decimal odds use decimal numbers to represent the difference between two teams, where the higher decimal number shows the underdog, and the lower one shows the favorite. It may be counter-intuitive to look at the lower number as the favorite. However, if you think about how betting works, it does make a sort of sense.
Money Line
Finally, we reach the so-called American odds, also known as money lines. Rather than focusing on bets of 1, money line odds calculate bets made in $100. They are represented by positive and negative numbers. As an example, let us take two hypothetical teams:
Team A: +441
Team B: -525
In this hypothetical, the “+” denotes the underdog. It represents the amount of cash that equals a $100, should the preferred team win the game. On the other hand, the “-“ denotes the favorite to win. It describes how much money a punter needs to wager when betting on said team.
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