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All seems to be lost for Croatia and Luka Modric, but there is still some hope of knockout football at the 2024 Euros
After three matches in the Group stage of Euro 2024, tournament dark horses Croatia appear ot be headed for an early exit despite the best efforts of Real Madrid veteran midfielder Luka Modric.
Modric scored Croatia’s opener in the final group game against Italy, but with only thirty seconds to go, the Kockasti had their hearts broken thanks to Mattia Zaccagni’s 98th-minute equaliser.
The 1-1 draw meant that Croatia finished the group stage in third position with just two points after a loss to Spain and two draws against Albania and Italy. With only four out of six third-placed teams qualifying for the knockout stages, Croatia have one foot out of Euro 2024 and the other foot on a banana peel.
While Croatia are mentally eliminated already, they still have mathematical hope of reaching the round of 16 and while it may be very difficult for them to qualify for the knockout stages, it is not impossible as long as these four things happen.
England beat Slovenia by more than three goals
With Slovenia already on two points, and with a better goal difference than Croatia, the Croats will be looking to England to do them a favour and win their last match of the group stage by a large margin.
Slovenia have a goal difference of zero, compared to Croatia’s -3, meaning England must win against their matchday three opponents by three or more goals to give the Kockasti any chance to reach the Round of 16, and even that might not be enough.
A draw for Slovenia, or a relatively low-scoring defeat to England will see them stay above Croatia in the table of best third-placed teams, effectively knocking out the 2018 World Cup finalists.
A winner emerges between Serbia and Denmark
In the other Group C match involving Serbia and Denmark, a winner must emerge for Croatia to stand a chance of qualifying for the second round as points shared will see both teams finish above the Kockasti.
Serbia currently have one point from two games, with a -1 goal difference, while Denmark have two points from two games after a pair of draws against Slovenia and England.
A draw would see Serbia move to two points, and above Croatia thanks to goal difference, while Denmark would also finish with three points, which would be one more than Croatia.
Even if England do beat Serbia by more than three goals, a draw in the game between Serbia and Denmark will see both countries qualify ahead of Croatia, meaning that a winner must emerge for the 2008 quarterfinalists to qualify for the round of 16.
For Croatia, it would be crucial for this winner to be Denmark, as a win for Serbia that favours Croatia would also have to be by three or more goals.
Portugal beat Georgia
As for the results in Group F that could influence Croatia’s progress to the next round, the permutations are a lot simpler.
In addition to results in Group C going their way, Croatia will also need Portugal to beat Georgia in their final group game and condemn the debutants to an early exit from Euro 2024.
Georgia currently sit last in Group F on one point with a goal difference of -2, meaning even a point against Portugal in the final group match will see Georgia finish ahead of Croatia on goal difference.
A loss for Georgia however, would seal Georgia’s fate, giving Croatia hope of a longer campaign.
Turkey beat Czech Republic
Finally, all the other results going their way would be useless for Croatia if the Czech Republic manage to secure a result against Turkey.
The Czech Republic currently have only one point from two games, earned through their 1-1 draw against Georgia, and a win for them will see them leapfrog the Turks into second place.
This would not bode well for Croatia as Turkey would also be able to claim a best loser place ahead of the Kockasti, condemning them to an early exit.
Even a draw for the Czech Republic would see them end the group stage with two points and a goal difference of -1, a better outcome than Croatia’s -3.
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