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Manchester City are odds on favourites to beat Arsenal, but there are three reasons why the Gunners will come out victorious on Wednesday
Arsenal and Manchester City will do battle on Wednesday in a match that will almost certainly decide where the Premier League trophy will end up this season.
The Gunners have been on top of the Premier League longer than any other team this season but could be knocked off their perch if Manchester City win all their remaining games, including the crucial fixture against Arsenal.
Manchester City are overwhelming favourites to beat Arsenal, but these three things should give Gunners everywhere hope that they could overcome the odds as they have done most of the season already.
Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka
In Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka, Arsenal have two of the most in-form wingers in England, and beyond this, they have two wingers who are very goal-oriented and specialize in exploiting the exact types of gaps that Manchester City often leave behind them.
Martinelli and Saka have either scored or assisted 44 of Arsenal’s 77 goals in the Premier League this season and have been two of the best players in the 2022/23 campaign.
They recently became the first duo 21 years of age or younger to register 20 goal contributions in a single Premier League season for the same club, and they could really trouble Manchester City if they play to their strengths.
Their pace, direct running, trickery, and eye for goal mean they could trouble Manchester City’s make-shift full-backs Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji.
Counterattacks and pressing
Manchester City’s set-up this season has left them more vulnerable to counterattacks than usual, and that is an area that Arsenal specialise in exploiting.
After 20 games of this Premier League season, the Cityzens had already conceded up to five shots in a game from set pieces on six different occasions, something that only happened seven times in the whole of the 2021/22 season.
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Arsenal could exploit a gap in Manchester City’s gameplay as they have proven to be one of the best teams on the break in the league especially when they turn over possession quickly.
No other team in the Premier League has had more shots on goal from high turnover situations than the Gunners’ 53, and they will be hoping to get into similar situations when they play Manchester City.
Arsenal’s prior losses to Manchester City this season
Although the Cityzens are the overwhelming favourites after beating Arsenal twice already, it is worth noting how close the margins in those victories were.
Even when Manchester City appeared to cruise to a 3-1 win in the reverse leg in the Premier League, a closer look shows that the tie could have gone differently but for misses at crucial times by Eddie Nketiah and an error in defence from Takehiro Tomiyasu that gifted Manchester City a goal.
Despite this, Arsenal’s 1.64 expected goals were quite close to Machester City’s 1.80, showing how close the game was.
Further back in the season, Arsenal also lost to Manchester City 1-0 in the FA Cup, and that loss more than any other would give the Gunners some confidence that they can go toe-to-toe with the Cityzens.
On that occasion, Arsenal were even closer to matching Manchester City despite not starting with a number of key players, including Aaron Ramsdale, William Saliba, Martin Odegaard, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Gabriel Jesus, and Gabriel Martinelli.
Manchester City were only able to score through the unlikeliest source as Ake beat two markers to score a sensational winner in a very tight game.
In the FA Cup game, Arsenal had four shots from inside the 18-yard-box compared to Manchester City’s two, and the Gunners, on another day, could have won the game.
Arsenal will be hoping for better luck and better nerves when they play against Manchester City one last time, as they look to keep their title charge alive.
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