The Super Eagles beat Ivory Coast in the group stages, but will have to keep their guard up in the 2023 AFCON final
As the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) 2023 draws to its climax, the anticipation for the final between Nigeria and Ivory Coast is palpable. Nigeria, deemed favorites by the Opta supercomputer, which predicts their victory in 56.2% of pre-match simulations, have already shown their prowess by beating the Elephants in the group stage.
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However, there are compelling reasons for the Super Eagles to remain vigilant as they prepare to face their formidable opponents once again.
Unpredictable Ivory Coast
One of the most significant threats posed by Ivory Coast is their unpredictable attacking force. Throughout AFCON 2023, the Elephants have demonstrated their diverse scoring capability, with all six of their goals coming from different players.
This unpredictability makes it challenging for Nigeria to prepare a defensive strategy, as any player from Ivory Coast could pose a threat in the final. The last time Ivory Coast showcased such a varied array of goalscorers was in 2008, highlighting their current form's uniqueness and danger.
Previous Host Nation Successes
History favors the host nation in the Africa Cup of Nations, and Ivory Coast's journey to the final as the host nation is a testament to this trend. They are the first host nation to reach the final since Egypt in 2006, who won the tournament.
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Notably, five of the last six host nations that reached the final have lifted the trophy, with Nigeria's loss in 2000 being the only exception. This historical advantage could psychologically benefit Ivory Coast, giving them an extra layer of confidence and support in the final.
Ivory Coast’s Pressing and Passing Prowess
Ivory Coast's tactical strength, particularly in pressing and passing, should not be underestimated by the Super Eagles. They lead the tournament in shots attempted following high turnovers of possession, a statistic that underscores their ability to capitalize on their opponents' mistakes.
Furthermore, Ivory Coast has more than double the number of open-play passing sequences of 10+ passes compared to Nigeria, indicating their superior ball control and team coordination. This tactical discipline and ability to maintain possession could pose significant challenges for Nigeria in the final.
While Nigeria heads into the AFCON 2023 final as favorites, the threat posed by Ivory Coast is real and multifaceted. From their unpredictable goalscoring threats and historical advantage as the host nation to their tactical superiority in pressing and passing, the Elephants have proven they are a formidable force capable of upsetting the odds.