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An evaluation of Super Eagles chances of making the 2026 World Cup after the set back aagainst Zimbabwe.
The Super Eagles have seen their chances of making the 2026 World Cup suffer a major hit after they were held to a draw at home by Zimbabwe.
A poor start to their qualifying campaign, collecting only three points from a possible 12, left them swimming against the tide. It also meant that they needed to win all six points during this international window to keep their odds favourable.
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19:16 - 25.03.2025
Player Ratings: Ekong disappoints, Osimhen shines in Super Eagles draw against Zimbabwe
The Super Eagles World Cup ambition is now hanging by a thread after a disappointing draw at home to Zimbabwe.
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19:05 - 25.03.2025
Nigeria vs Zimbabwe: No Osimhen No Party and 2 other lessons from the disappointing draw
The Super Eagles failed to do the job against Zimbabwe, settling for another 1-1 draw after conceding late in the game. Here are the lessons from the game.
A 2-0 win against Rwanda set them down the right path; however, their result earlier today was a regression, as they are now six points off automatic qualification.
While the chances are slimmer now, all hope is not lost, as there are factors that can propel Nigeria’s ambition.
PAY ATTENTION: Stay updated with the Latest Soccer News in Nigeria from Pulse Sports
South Africa's possible point deduction
The Bafana Bafana are current league leaders in Group C with 13 points, six above the seven accrued by the Super Eagles.
However, that margin could be halved should FIFA return with a guilty verdict for South Africa, who have been accused of fielding an ineligible player.
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Teboho Mokoena, the player in question, received a yellow card in the first and fourth qualifying matches, which meant he was ineligible for South Africa’s fifth game against Lesotho, as FIFA regulations stipulate that if a player receives two yellow cards in separate games, they become ineligible for the subsequent match.
Mokoena played the next game against Lesotho, for 82 minutes as well. Hence, the Lesotho Football Association sent an official query to the world football governing body.
The Super Eagles still have a return leg fixture against the Bafana Bafana. A victory in that fixture, plus a three-point deduction for the southern African nation, would mean the current margin is wiped off.
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Points collection
It is not enough for the Super Eagles to beat South Africa even with the point deduction, if they continue to drop points unnecessarily.
The table as it stands is as follows:
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Nigeria are still behind South Africa, Benin Republic, Rwanda, and potentially Lesotho, should they receive the three points at Bafana Bafana’s expense.
Hence, to guarantee qualification, the Super Eagles have to first win all their matches. Victory in all four remaining matches against Rwanda, South Africa, Lesotho, and Benin Republic guarantees that the Super Eagles will finish above at least three of these teams.
This is because only South Africa are above Nigeria with three points or more, and a simple victory against all four teams, ensures Nigeria finishes in at least second, regardless of how results pan out elsewhere.
Should South Africa be docked three points and win their remaining games except the one against Nigeria, the Super Eagles will win the group, provided they go on a flawless run. However, should their current total remain and they collect maximum points in every other game except their match against Nigeria, then the Super Eagles will finish second, and hope to be among the best second-placed teams.
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Playoff route
There are nine groups in CAF qualifying for the FIFA 2026 World Cup. The winners of each group qualify for the competition automatically, while the four best second-placed teams will go the playoff route.
At the time of writing, the four teams currently occupying the playoff spots are Gabon (15 points), Namibia (12 points), Mozambique (12 points), and Burkina Faso (11 points).
The Super Eagles are currently on seven points, but can potentially collect 12 more. With a potential total of 19 points at the end of the group and results in other groups going their way, the playoff might prove a viable option to qualify for the World Cup.
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